Game 1: Thu., Oct. 15 at Los Angeles
Cole Hamels (10-10, 4.32) vs. Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79)

Game 2: Fri., Oct. 16 at Los Angeles
Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.63) vs. Vicente Padilla (4-0, 3.20)

Game 3: Sun., Oct. 18 at Philadelphia
Cliff Lee (7-4, 3.39) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (8-7, 3.76)

Game 4: Mon., Oct. 19 at Philadelphia
TBA vs. Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23)

Game 5: Tue., Oct. 21 at Philadelphia
TBA vs. TBA 

Game 6: Thu., Oct. 23 at Los Angeles
TBA vs. TBA 

Game 7: Fri., Oct. 24 at Los Angeles
TBA vs. TBA 

Preview

The NLCS matchup that most experts saw coming back in July is finally here. Though we mistakenly picked St. Louis to beat the Dodgers, these are clearly the two teams that deserve to be here. Over the season and in the short term, the Dodgers and Phillies are the best teams the National League has to offer.

It a rematch of last year (and 1977, ’78 and ’83). Of the 28 different matchups in the NLCS since 1969, only six have ever been repeated. This will be the fifth meeting in the NLCS for the Dodgers and Phillies. The Pirates and Reds have also met five times. Just four other matchups have ever been repeated, none more than twice. For the sake of those concerned with history, St. Louis-San Francisco, St. Louis-Houston, St. Louis-New York and Philadelphia-Atlanta are the other four matchups that have occurred more than once in the NLCS. This is only the fourth rematch the following year. The Dodgers took both NLCS over the Phillies in 1978 and ’79. The Braves defeated the Pirates in 1991 and ’92, while St. Louis and Houston split in 2004 and ’05. But enough meaningless history.

Both teams in 2009 feature lineups with a penchant for clutch hitting. Neither team is a stranger to drama, during the regular season or postseason. So it would be a disappointment if the series is less than seven games and all seven are decided in the final innings. No pressure there.

It is interesting to note how the pitching rotations have changed in one season though: Last year’s Games 1-4 starters: Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton vs. Derek Lowe, Chad Bllingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and TBA.

How the Phillies Can Win

Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley must keep the pressure on the Dodgers’ starters and make them work. If the Dodgers’ starters can turn the game over to the late-inning guys, the Phillies may not have a chance. Randy Wolf couldn’t get through the fourth inning after throwing 86 pitches in Game 1 of the NLDS. But the Cardinals couldn’t capitalize. The Phillies won’t let him off the hook that easily.

The Phillies’ starters must negotiate the Dodgers’ lineup carefully. The Cardinals showed how to pitch to Matt Kemp, but had no right-handed answer for Andre Ethier. But Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee should be able to neutralize him. If the Phillies can put themselves in a position to pitch around Manny Ramirez (who is locked in right now), then they’ll be fine.

To quote our preview from 2008: “And Finally, Brad Lidge cannot get too close to the cliff. He tends to live on edge, allowing base runners before finally closing out games. The Dodgers are adept at taking a mile when you give them an inch. So he must be sharp.” Those words were coming off a perfect season by Lidge closing for the Phillies. So Ryan Madson must be sharp this time around.

How the Dodgers Can Win

The Dodgers’ scouts nailed the Cardinals’ hitters and their pitchers executed the game plan. That has been a hallmark of Joe Torre’s postseason teams at all his stops. I would expect the Dodgers to approach Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in a similar fashion to Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. They pitched around Pujols and attacked Holliday. I suspect they find some holes in Howard and attack him the same way.

The Dodgers’ defense is sound, with the exception of left field (although it must be noted that Manny made a catch on a similar play as Holliday’s gaffe the inning prior), so don’t expect the Phillies to get any gifts.

The Dodgers’ bullpen is as sound and deep as any in the majors. Ronald Belisario, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo and Jonathan Broxton can left-right you to death. Utley, Howard and Raul Ibañez will become quite acquainted with Sherrill and Kuo. The Phillies just don’t have that luxury in their pen. So the edge in close games goes to L.A.

Players to Watch

For the Dodgers, it’s all the usual suspects: Manny, Kemp and Ethier. But the real key could be Casey Blake. The understated third baseman grinds at-bats, making pitchers work and is proven in the clutch. With their lefty starters, the Phillies may have success with Ethier and Loney while pitching around Manny. So Blake becomes the key figure in that lineup. Kemp struggled against Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in the NLDS, but he’ll be a tough out for lefties Hamels and Lee.

For the Phillies, it’s Jayson Werth and reliever Ryan Madson. Werth, most likely hitting fifth behind Howard, will be the right-handed bat sandwiched between Howard and Ibañez. He must produce. Madson, who had success closing games late in the season for Philadelphia, will be asked to get tough outs in the seventh and eighth innings, and maybe even the ninth.

Athlon Sports Says…

In a series that will feature close games, plenty of runs and late-inning heroics, it will take a deep bullpen to weather the storms. Jonathan Broxton is much less likely to bring a gas can to rally than his counterpart Brad Lidge. Los Angeles wins in seven.