Head Coach: Kevin Stallings
2008-09 Record (SEC): 19–12 (8–8)
2008-09 Postseason: None
Key Loss: G George Drake (5.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg)

2009-10 SEC East Prediction: 3rd

Kevin Stallings is willing to call Vanderbilt’s 2008-09 season a success even though the Commodores failed to earn an NCAA Tournament bid for the first time in three years. The veteran coach saw enough out of his team — one of the youngest in the nation — to give him reason to believe things will be different in the very near future.

“The fact that we finished 7–3 in our last 10 games in the league (after a 1–5 start), that was significant,” says Stallings, who started three true freshmen in more than half of the team’s games. “We laid a very solid foundation for what we can be not only this year, but in years to come.”

This year, Vanderbilt can expect to return to the NCAA Tournament. The Commodores welcome back all but one player from last season’s 19–12 team and add John Jenkins, the most decorated recruit at the school in more than 30 years.

Frontcourt

The general perception is that A.J. Ogilvy endured a bit of a sophomore slump, but the 6'11" Australian was actually more productive in SEC games last year than he was as a freshman. After struggling with a foot injury and upper respiratory infection in late December and early January, Ogilvy finished strong, averaging 18.6 points and 7.8 boards over the final 10 regular-season games. Assuming he remains healthy, Ogilvy is poised for a banner season. With Vanderbilt’s improved 3-point shooting, defenses will have a far more difficult time clogging the lane and crowding Ogilvy around the basket.

Festus Ezeli didn’t make a big impact as a redshirt freshman, but the 6'11" Nigerian-born center hinted at things to come during his first season of organized basketball. At times, Stalling paired Ogilvy and Ezeli together in a Twin Towers frontcourt; don’t be surprised to see that look more often in ’09-10.

Sophomore Jeffery Taylor, one of the most athletic players ever to wear a Vanderbilt uniform, is a lock to start at small forward. Taylor started all 31 games as a freshman, averaging 12.2 points and 6.2 rebounds while leading the team in dunks by a wide margin. He struggled from the perimeter, but Stallings believes Taylor will develop into a capable 3-point shooter.

Versatile sophomore Andre Walker could start at power forward or come off the bench if the Dores start Ezeli and Ogilvy. A natural 3-man who can also handle the point in a pinch, Walker broke into the starting lineup last season before tearing his ACL in the third game of the season.

Sophomore Lance Goulbourne will be a top option off the bench. Goulbourne, an explosive athlete, missed time early last season with mono and then was slowed the rest of the year with a pelvic stress fracture.

Sophomore Steve Tchiengang (16 starts in ’08-09) and junior Darshawn McClellan are natural power forwards who will also be in the rotation.

Backcourt

Stallings is doing his best to curtail expectations, but Jenkins is quite simply the most anticipated basketball recruit in the history of the program. Jenkins led the nation in scoring as a prep senior, averaging 42.3 points per game at nearby Station Camp High School. He is a prolific outside shooter and an underrated athlete who has the ability to take the ball to the basket.

Jenkins no doubt will get plenty of playing time, but he isn’t likely to crack the starting lineup — at least right away. Senior Jermaine Beal is entrenched at the point, and sophomore Brad Tinsley returns at shooting guard after averaging 11.0 points and shooting a team-best .411 from three as a freshman. “I thought Brad was really, really effective — quietly effective last year,” Stallings says. Beal improved his scoring by almost five points per game last season and turned his 3-point shooting from a liability (.299 in his first two years) into a strength (.403 in ’08-09).

Tinsley will also back up Beal, with hard-nosed sophomore Charles Hinkle as an option off the bench at shooting guard.

Final Analysis

Vanderbilt is talented — very talented. But the SEC should be much improved, with at least seven teams strong enough to warrant NCAA Tournament consideration. Kentucky boasts the most talented roster, and Tennessee, with everyone back from a 10–6 team, will be very good, but the Commodores should also be a factor in the East. With a veteran point guard in Beal, a legitimate low-post threat in Ogilvy plus a strong core of young players, Vanderbilt has the ingredients to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.