Head Coach: Tom Izzo
2008-09 Record (Big Ten): 31–7 (15–3)
2008-09 Postseason: NCAA: Defeated Robert Morris 77–62, defeated USC 74–69, defeated Kansas 67–62, defeated Louisville 64–52, defeated Connecticut 82–73, lost to North Carolina 89–72 in the championship game
Key Losses: C Goran Suton (10.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.1 spg), G Travis Walton (5.1 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.5 spg)

2009-10 Big Ten Prediction: 1st

Michigan State has reached the point where it can play for the national championship one season and expect to win it the following year. “The goal is to get back there,” says head coach Tom Izzo, who reached the fifth Final Four of his 14-year Michigan State tenure last season. “I think we will have a chance. We could be as good or better in some ways.”

The Spartans return the Big Ten Player of the Year in point guard Kalin Lucas, and they possess plenty of high-end talent and potential. However, Michigan State will be short on Izzo-brand intangibles in the frontcourt, which could make it difficult for the Spartans to reach their ultimate goal in 2010.

Frontcourt

The Spartans will rely on unproven commodities up front. Delvon Roe was among the best in the world in his age group two years ago. He had a good freshman season, averaging 5.6 points and 5.2 rebounds, although he wasn’t quite up to 100 percent horsepower. No one is sure what the full-blown Roe will look like now that he has fully recovered from the major knee injury he sustained in high school, but the Spartans need him to be great.

Only Draymond Green joins Roe in having provided a regular role down low a year ago. The rotund Green played strong late last season, averaging 8.5 points and 5.3 rebounds in the NCAA Tournament. Green is battle-tested, but it is hard to count Michigan State as a national favorite if Roe and Green are relied upon to police the paint.

Raymar Morgan can swing to the 4. But he can’t help fix Michigan State’s vulnerability against quality big men.

“We will definitely go small some, more than last year,” Izzo says. “But we have to get our freshmen big men to play; we have to get Tom Herzog to play. We need 25 to 30 minutes out of those guys. I don’t think you can play small all the time, especially with some matchups.”

Herzog is a legitimate 7-footer but averaged only two minutes per game last year. He has been slow to develop, yet the Spartans need him to come through on defense and the glass.

Of the incoming freshmen, Derrick Nix has width and hands but is trying to lose weight, and Garrick Sherman has nice skills but is low on strength. They’re all question marks.

Izzo’s best teams have had great defensive knowledge in the paint. It will be difficult for Izzo to get the unproven big men to master his defensive rules by March.

Backcourt

Lucas is as good as any point guard in America. He has added upper body strength and improved his perimeter shooting. He’s strong with the dribble and quick with separation for medium-range scoring. He can drive, draw and dish to talented wing men.

Morgan is a good rebounder and tough matchup at the 3, but not tremendously skilled from long range or off the pull-up.

Durrell Summers, an outstanding leaper, might have more high-end potential than anyone on the team. He was among the top 3-pointer shooters in the Big Ten for most of the year before cooling off down the stretch. His ball-handling still needs work.

Michigan State needs Chris Allen to shoot better than his 31.1 percent long-range accuracy of a year ago. Future star Korie Lucious is a fearless combo guard who seems to get hot when the Spartans need it.

Isaiah Dahlman was a spot starter as a true freshman in 2006-07, but he has dropped out of the playing rotation in the past two years.

Final Analysis

The Spartans head into the ’09-10 season with high expectations, but this is not a team without issues. Izzo is most concerned about a Goran Suton-less frontcourt.

“No one gave our big guys enough credit last year, especially the ones we could bring off the bench and plug into tough assignments,” Izzo says.

The Spartans do, however, boast star power. Lucas, who learned valuable lessons in bouts with Ty Lawson and Sherron Collins last season, is ready for greatness.

If the supporting cast — players like Morgan, Roe, Summers and Allen — does its job, this team could be dynamite and explode on the country again in March. The Spartans have their sights set on a second-straight Big Ten title and a return to the Final Four.