CFB Fantasy: Start Or Sit

Each week, Athlon offers up quality fantasy advice about who to start and who to sit. Sometime its incredibly strong advice and sometimes its not so strong. Regardless, Think Twice has always been objective in its constant self-evaluation. Unfortunately, at times, Think Twice has to point out the fantasy advice that blew up in owners faces — like calling for Jeremiah Masoli to be benched against USC before he runs for 164 yards. But come on, an oft-injured quarterback against a USC defense?

However, a nice pat on the back is in order for the wideout advice from Think Twice last week — especially since the wide receivers are the most difficult to predict from week to week. Here are the names Think Twice said to play last week:

Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (4 rec, 76 yds, TD)
Armon Binns, Cincinnati (5 rec, 138 yds, 2 TDs)
Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss (186 rush yds, TD, 4 rec, 17 yds)
Robert Arnheim / Ansel Ponder, Western Michigan (12 rec, 102 yds, 2 TDs)
Michael Outlaw et. al, North Texas (The group caught 19 passes and 4 TDs)
Derek Moye, Penn State (6 rec, 123 yds, TD)

After that nice little piece of self-promotion, here is Week Ten's fantasy advice.

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Quarterbacks — Better Think Twice

Terrelle Pryor vs. Daryll Clark, Ohio State @ Penn State
These two combined to complete 24 of their 45 passes for 347 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in last season's 13-6 Nittany Lions victory. These are once again two of the best defenses in the nation. Ohio State ranks 6th nationally (11.7 ppg) in scoring defense and Penn State actually leads the nation by allowing an absurd 9.3 ppg. Another low scoring affair is likely. As an interesting side note, Clark is from Ohio and Pryor is from Pennsylvania.

Tim Hiller, Western Michigan (@ Michigan State)
We will just forget the last time a highly drafted fantasy quarterback from the MAC went to East Lansing (ahem, Dan LeFevour). In his only two games this season against BCS conference foes (Michigan, Indiana), Hiller posted 517 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs with minus-27 yards rushing.

Ryan Lindley, San Diego State (TCU)
The Horned Frog defense absolutely dominated this Aztec team last season 41-7. They allowed SDSU quarterbacks — which included eight attempts from Lindley — to complete 10 of 26 passes for 98 yards and no touchdowns. This season, TCU boasts the nation's No. 1 defense by allowing only 235 yards per game — only 146 passing yards per game.

Thaddeus Lewis, Duke (@ North Carolina)
Matt Barkley, USC (@ Arizona State)
Joey Elliot, Purdue (@ Michigan)

Even if they were healthy, it will be tough sledding:

Christian Ponder, Florida State (@ Clemson)
Ricky Dobbs, Navy (@ Notre Dame)
Riley Skinner, Wake Forest (@ Georgia Tech)
MIke Kafka, Northwestern (@ Iowa)

Quarterbacks — Deserves A Second Look


Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee (Memphis)
In two games against non-BCS opponents, Crompton has piled up seven touchdowns and 455 yards passing. Over his last four games — which includes Georgia, Alabama, Auburn and South Carolina — he has thrown nine touchdowns against only two interceptions. Memphis will not pose a challenge to the Vols offense and Crompton could benefit with another WKU-esque performance: 233 and 5.

Bill Stull, Pitt (Syracuse)
Very quietly Stull has turned into the Big East's most efficient passer with a 161.09 quarterback rating (good for 3rd nationally). He has reached the 200-yard mark in five of his last six games and has thrown a pick in only three games this season. Syracuse ranks 114th in the nation in pass efficiency defense (158.45) and gives up 274 passing yards per game — good for 117th nationally. Stull could have a field day in preparation for the Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati stretch awaiting the Panthers.

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State (Western Michigan)
Over his last three, Cousins has completed nearly 60-percent of his passes and has topped 225 yards in each. He also has five scores versus only one interception. With a season rating of 139.95, Cousins has worked his way into second place in the Big Ten in passer efficiency. Western Michigan ranks 102nd against the pass allowing 249 ypg. With a banged up corps of runners, Cousins will be the primary focus of the offense.

Other solid plays:

Juice Williams vs. Adam Weber, Illinois @ Minnesota
Sean Canfield vs. Kevin Riley, Oregon State @ Cal
Kyle Padron, SMU (Rice)
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina (@ Arkansas)
Chris Todd, Auburn (Furman)

Running Backs — Better Think Twice

Evan Royster, Penn State (Ohio State)
In a road win last season Royster managed only 77 yards on 19 carries with no scores. He has posted three straight 100-yard games but most of that came on one long run last week against Northwestern after the game got out of hand. The best two tailbacks the Bucks have faced this year were shut down. They held Wisconsin's John Clay to 59 yards and USC's Joe McKnight to 60 yards. Neither scored.

DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, Oklahoma (@ Nebraska)
The last time a running back scored a rushing touchdown against the Huskers was Week Three. Since that game, opposing teams have averaged 81 yards rushing in five games. The Black Shirts have been particularly strong against team's top rusher: Jay Finley (19 yds), Baron Batch (38 yds), Derrick Washington (80 yds), Undrea Sails (41 yds) and Jeremiah Schwartz (50 yds — Robinson did not play for Iowa State). Look for Landry Jones to do most of the heavy lifting in this one.

Anyone who runs the ball, Boise State @ Louisiana Tech
Boise State's running game has been solid but completely unpredictable. Over the last three games — in which the Broncos have scored 127 points — three different players have received the most carries and yards. Jeremy Avery led the team against San Jose State with 13 carries for 50 yards. Matt Kaiserman led the team against Hawaii with 23 carries for 126 yards. Doug Martin led the team against Tulsa with 23 carries for 116 yards. Those three combined for two rushing touchdown over that span. For La. Tech, Daniel Porter is battling an injury and both defenses play well against the run. Stay away.

Other tough match-ups:

Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford, USC (@ Arizona State)
Alexander Robinson, Iowa State (Oklahoma State)
Brandon West, Western Michigan (@ Michigan State)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue (@ Michigan)

No Brainer Benches:

Delone Carter, Syracuse (@ Pitt)
Charles Scott, LSU (@ Alabama)
Roy Helu, Nebraska (Oklahoma)

Running Backs — Deserves A Second Look

Brandon Wegher, Iowa (Northwestern)
Much like Texas Tech quarterbacks, the Hawkeyes tailbacks will always be a solid fantasy play. Jewel Hampton goes down, Adam Robinson steps in and produces. Robinson goes down and Wegher puts up a 100-plus yard effort and three scores last week in his first start. Iowa will look to get him going again this week and Northwestern shouldn't slow down the ground attack. They did allow 118 yards and a score to Evan Royster last week.

Keola Antolin, Arizona (Washington State)
Almost every player on the Arizona offense is a great play this week against the lowly Cougars. Nic Grigsby and Greg Nwoko are battling injuries and their effectiveness is a big question. Antolin should get most of the carries and this one should be out of hand quickly offering plenty of fantasy value. The Cougs are allowing 220 rushing yards per game and 37 points per game on defense. Brutal!

Mikel LeShoure, Illinois (@ Minnesota)
Maybe the most unexpected stat of the season was the Illini's rushing total against Michigan last week. They won their first Big Ten game by rushing for 377 yards against the Maize and Blue. LeShoure got the most carries with 21 and posted a strong 160 yards and one touchdown game. Jason Ford got into the action as well with 131 yards on 12 carries (most came on one 79-yard touchdown). The Gophers allow 171.9 yards per game on the ground.

Jacquise Terry, Kent State (@ Akron)
The passing game has come alive for Kent State with Spencer Keith now throwing the ball and it has opened things up for the ground game. Terry posted a very solid 114 yards on 23 carries and scored against Western Michigan last week. The Zips aren't stopping anyone of the ground as they allow a 100th worst 182 yards per game.

Pathetic SEC matchups that could pay off:

Mario Fanin, Auburn (Furman)
Brandon Bolden, Ole Miss (Northern Arizona)
Caleb King and Washaun Ealey, Georgia (Tennessee Tech)
Bryce Brown, Tennessee (Memphis)
Someone for Kentucky (Eastern Kentucky)

By the way, who is doing the scheduling for the SEC? Furman? Tennessee Tech? EKU? Seriously?

Wide Receivers — Better Think Twice

Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss (Nortern Arizona)
Great player in a great matchup but how much will he be needed?

DeVier Posey / Dane Sanzenbacher vs. Derek Moye and Co. (OSU @ PSU)
Really tough matchup for everyone on either offense.

DeMarco Sampson, San Diego State (TCU)
Limited upside against nation's best defense.

Tandon Doss, Indiana (Wisconsin)
Badgers playing great on defense and Chappell is struggling.

Duke Calhoun, Memphis (@ Tennessee)
Should be behind early but Eric Berry-led secondary won't get beat.

Brandon LaFell, LSU (@ Alabama)
Brutal matchup with a young, inconsistent quarterback throwing passes.

Wide Receivers— Deserves A Second Look

Jonathan Baldwin, Pitt (Syracuse)
Elite talent has been a big part of Stull's rise to prominence.

Blair White, Michigan State (Western Michigan)
19 rec, 317 yds, 3 TDs over last three since Cousins got back.
 
Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M (@ Colorado)
Back healthy last week with a bang: 5 rec, 67 yds, TD. Expect more.

Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Arkansas (South Carolina)
Could be a shootout in Fayetteville and Mallett is playing good football.

Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina (@ Arkansas)
Offense is struggling but Hogs are nothing special and he is go-to target.

Terrell Turner and Co., Arizona (Washington State)
Have you watched Washington State play football?

Tyshon Goode, Kent State (@ Akron)
New quarterback Smith is looking at Goode early and often.

Top 10 Defensive Spot Starts

1. Auburn (Furman)
2. Georgia (Tennesee Tech)
3. Tennessee (Memphis)
4. Kentucky (Eastern Kentucky)
5. Arizona (Washington State)
6. Pitt (Syracuse)
7. Utah (New Mexico)
8. Miami (Virginia)
9. Wisconsin (@ Indiana)
10. Cincinnati (UConn)

Submitted by bradengall on November 6, 2009 - 6:59am. email this page


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